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Kitsap Real Estate Local Markets in February 2012
Posted on 2012 02 21 by hdnelson
Each month we try to compare some reports about the national real estate market to what we see in our local markets. While nationally the blog Calculated Risk reported that short sales increased significantly in the 4th quarter, we only saw 27% (a very modest rise if any) of last year’s short sales close in Q4. There was also a report from Marc Hanson that the percentage of REO (bank owned) sales In December fell in California as an overall percentage of sales in that market. In our market the number of closed sales that were bank owned rose from 38 in November to 43 in December (up 12%). Our market agrees with the article that $200-300k is the new normal for homebuilders. The article shows that the percentage of sales in the west under $300k was 42% in 2007, but is now 65%. In Kitsap County, the percentage of sales under $300k was 54% (1945 of 3615 total sales) in 2007 and in 2011 was 72% (1829 of 2538 total sales). More at http://tinyurl.com/7pljyjx
Report that the Housing Bottom is Here
Posted on 2012 02 06 by hdnelson
The influential real estate and economics blog Calculated Risk has posted that “The Housing Bottom is Here”. He differentiates between new home sales increasing - this is happening already - and housing prices reaching a bottom, which he thinks nationally will occur in March 2012.
There are several reasons I think that house prices are close to a bottom. First prices are close to normal looking at the price-to-rent ratio and real prices (especially if prices fall another 4% to 5% NSA between the November Case-Shiller report and the March report). Second the large decline in listed inventory means less downward pressure on house prices, and third, I think that several policy initiatives will lessen the pressure from distressed sales.
See http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/housing-bottom-is-here.html
Is Housing Market Recovering from the Bottom Up?
Posted on 2012 01 18 by Admin
An article in the blog Calculated Risk commented on a Wall Street Journal Article, “From the Bottom Up, Signs of a Housing Recovery.” The article refers to strong buying among lower priced homes in the New York market. We sampled the low end Kitsap Market to see whether it looks like we might be seeing a recovery from the bottom up. Note that the recovery we speak of is an increase in the number of sales, not an increase in prices. Above is number of sales each month in the Kitsap market for 2011 in the under $200k market and the $200-300k market. Trends are hard to discern, but it looks like we might be on to something. See article at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/01/qotd-housing-markets-get-healthy-from.html